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to managing people’s money

Real estate research

Our focused research tracks the trends that drive the real estate sector, property portfolios and specific assets. We also get regular input from people working in regional markets so that we can identify specific trends.

Our research is focused on two core areas:

  • Trends that impact capital markets for real estate pricing, yields and funding costs
  • Trends that impact real estate markets for vacancy forecasts, changes in market rental, contractual rental escalation rates and operating cost increases

Following the initial research phase, the analysts in each region focus specifically on the stocks that form part of their core portfolio within their region. Our company analysis is focused around four key areas that we believe influence the long-term total return potential:

Real estate portfolio quality

Risk and return potential of the real estate portfolio earnings

Capital structure

Quality of management

The next step in our structured process is to determine the intrinsic value of each of the stocks in the sector. This allows us to establish the relative value of each of the shares, which ultimately drives portfolio construction.

The following components determine the intrinsic value:
  • Risk adjusted required return – We calculate a risk-adjusted required return for each share to determine what return the share should deliver in the context of its specific risk level.
  • Income distribution forecast – Overlaying our research and company analysis to the above factors enables us to construct a five-year forecast of distribution (earnings) per unit based on company-specific features.
  • Calculation of intrinsic value – We apply a discounted cash flow approach to determine intrinsic value and incorporate the individual company’s risk-adjusted required return, rolled forecast distributions and terminal value. (The terminal value is a calculation based on earning, sustainable growth and risk-adjusted required return.)

The final outcome is a relative value ranking of the individual companies expressed as the percentage difference between the market price and our intrinsic value plus accrued distribution (analyst’s price).

This forms the basis of our portfolio construction.